The year Warren Buffett wrote down the rules of the partnership, bought a furniture store that began with $500, and explained why a great business is worth far more than what was put into it.
Buffett's seventh famous letter opens by setting down the rules of the partnership for a crowd of new owners, then spends the year on one question in many disguises: what is a business really worth, as against what was paid for it?
Profit from running the businesses roughly doubled to $68.2 million, with help from the merger, which raised Berkshire's share of See's and the News, and from a one-time $19.6 million GEICO payout he flags as large and unusual. The real news is elsewhere: a furniture store bought from a 90-year-old who started it with $500, an appendix on the invisible asset called goodwill, and a long argument against splitting the stock. Seven plain lessons, and a confession about insurance.
- 01Partners, not stockholdersThe rules
- 02The ideal business, built from $500Mrs. B
- 03What was put in, and what can be taken outValue
- 04Goodwill, the gift that keeps givingGoodwill
- 05Measure a franchise by who buys itThe News
- 06In insurance, the bill arrives years lateThe lag
- 07Why Berkshire won't split its stockTurnover
Partners, not stockholders
About a thousand new owners came through the door this year, most of them by way of the Blue Chip merger, so Buffett begins by telling them exactly what they have joined. Not a stock, in his telling, but a partnership that happens to be organized as a corporation.
Think of a company as a conduit through which its owners hold the businesses, not as the owner itself. Every rule follows from that: measure progress per share rather than by size, buy the earnings that are real rather than the ones that print well, and tell the owners whatever you would want to know in their place.
The principles run to thirteen, and Exhibit 2 holds them all. The spine is one attitude: "Although our form is corporate, our attitude is partnership." Charlie Munger and he are the managing partners, and given the size of their holdings the controlling ones too. Every director is a major owner, most with over half the family's net worth in the stock. "We eat our own cooking," he writes, and few boards could say the same, or would want to.
Three rules do most of the work. Berkshire measures itself by progress per share, never by size. At a similar cost, it would rather buy $2 of earnings it cannot report than $1 it can, because whole businesses frequently sell for double the price of small pieces (last year's two pipes, now written down as policy). And every dollar of profit it keeps must in time become at least a dollar of market value, judged over rolling five-year stretches. So far, he reports, it has.
Intrinsic business value is what a business is truly worth to its owner: the cash it can be expected to hand over across its lifetime, discounted to today. Berkshire's goal is to grow that figure per share: a company that doubles in size by doubling its share count has done nothing for the owner of each share. Profits a company keeps rather than mails out as dividends are its retained earnings.
The rest are promises about temperament. Little debt, and long-term when any. No managerial "wish list" filled at the owners' expense. No selling a good business at any price, and no "gin rummy" habit of discarding the weakest business at each turn. Candor, with a warning attached: "the CEO who misleads others in public may eventually mislead himself in private." The one subject he will not be candid about is which stocks he is buying. Good ideas are rare, and easily stolen.
- 1The form is corporate. The attitude is partnership.
- 2Every director is a major owner, most with over half the family's net worth here.
- 3The goal: grow intrinsic value per share, not the size of the company.
- 4First choice, own whole businesses. Second, own pieces of them through stocks.
- 5The consolidated total may reveal little. Each business is reported on its own.
- 6Accounting never drives a decision: at a similar cost, $2 of unreportable earnings beats $1 reportable.
- 7Little debt, and long-term fixed-rate when any. Opportunities get turned down first.
- 8No managerial wish list filled at the shareholders' expense.
- 9Each $1 of profit kept must become at least $1 of market value, judged over five years.
- 10Shares are issued only for equal business value, whatever the form of the issue.
- 11Good businesses are never sold, poor ones only reluctantly. No gin rummy.
- 12Candor: the business facts the managers would want if the positions were reversed.
- 13Except investment ideas, which stay private, whether bought, sold, or rumored.
A circle of friends buys an apartment building together and asks two of them to manage it. The managers own the most units, so every repair bill lands on them too. They report the leaks along with the rent. They never let a new partner in at a discount, and they count success by what each friend's share earns, not by how many buildings the group can boast of. That is Berkshire's charter, in thirteen lines.
The second choice, listed
Here is the second choice in the flesh: pieces of businesses, bought through the insurers. The basket cost $566 million and was worth $1.31 billion at year-end, $2.31 for every dollar paid, with GEICO still the largest holding.
Crum & Forster, last year's parking place for cash, is gone from the list. Several positions were trimmed, while General Foods and R. J. Reynolds are far larger than a year ago. The forecast that matters is for the earnings nobody prints: Buffett expects these companies to mail Berkshire about $39 million of dividends in 1984 and to keep roughly $65 million more on its behalf. So far, he reports, the kept dollars have in aggregate become far more than a dollar each in market value.
| Company | What it is | Bought | Paid | Worth '83 | Compounded/yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Media General | Newspapers | ~1979 | $3.2M | $11.2M | ≈37% |
| The Washington Post | Newspapers | 1973 | $10.6M | $136.9M | ≈29% |
| Interpublic | Advertising | ~1973 | $4.1M | $33.1M | ≈23% |
| Affiliated Publications | Newspapers | ~1973 | $3.5M | $26.6M | ≈22% |
| Ogilvy & Mather | Advertising | ~1973 | $2.6M | $12.8M | ≈17% |
| Handy & Harman | Precious metals | ~1979 | $27.3M | $42.2M | ≈12% |
| GEICO | Car insurance | 1976 & 1980 | $47.1M | $398.2M | mixed |
| General Foods | Packaged food | ~1979 on | $163.8M | $228.7M | mixed |
| R. J. Reynolds | Tobacco | ~1980 on | $268.9M | $341.3M | mixed |
| Time | Magazines · publishing | ~1982 | $27.7M | $56.9M | n/a |
| All other holdings | $7.5M | $18.0M | |||
| Total common stocks | $566.3M | $1,305.9M |
The ideal business, built from $500
The high point of 1983 was a furniture store. Berkshire bought 90% of Nebraska Furniture Mart from Rose Blumkin, who founded it with $500 and who, at 90, still sells carpet on the floor seven days a week.
The ideal business gives its customers exceptional value, and that value comes back to its owners as exceptional economics. The test for any business is to ask how you would like to compete with it, given plenty of money and good people.
Last year's letter quoted Pascal on the virtue of staying quietly in one room. This year Buffett leaves it: "Even Pascal would have left the room for Mrs. Blumkin." Her story is in Exhibit 5: out of Russia at 23 with no schooling and no English, a store opened in 1937 on $500, creditors paid "precisely as promised" by selling the furniture from her own home, and every Fair Trade case against her price-cutting won, one of them ending with the judge buying $1,400 of carpet.
The chain she built is in Exhibit 4. The Blumkins buy brilliantly, run the store at expense ratios "competitors don't even dream about," and pass much of the saving to customers, who reward one 200,000-square-foot store with over $100 million of sales a year, more than every Omaha competitor combined. Asked how he would compete with that, Buffett answers: "I'd rather wrestle grizzlies than compete with Mrs. B and her progeny."
A store's expense ratio is what it costs to run the place for every dollar it sells: rent, staff, delivery, advertising. A store that spends less per dollar of sales can charge less and still earn more. An option is the right, but not the obligation, to buy a stake later at a set price.
Berkshire bought 90%, left 10% with the family members who run the store, and gave key young family managers an option on a further 10%. The store is not the only asset. "Geneticists should do handsprings over the Blumkin family," Buffett writes of Louie Blumkin and his three sons, and he ranks character ahead of buying skill. Berkshire would like more businesses of this kind, so the letter runs last year's want-ad again: repetition, as the newspapers tell their advertisers, is a key to results.
A corner grocer buys so shrewdly, and runs so lean, that her prices undercut the supermarket chain down the road. The chain has more money, more trucks, and more lawyers, and still cannot match her. Shoppers get the better deal, she gets the town, and the chain's executives quietly decide to compete somewhere else. Buffett's test is simply to ask which side of that contest you would rather be on.
What was put in, and what can be taken out
Book value per share rose 32% in 1983, and Buffett spends more words on what book value is not than on the gain. It is a record of money put in. What matters is what can be taken out.
Book value is an accounting total of what the owners contributed and what the business kept. Intrinsic value is an estimate of the cash a business will hand over in the future. The two can differ wildly, in either direction, and only the second one really counts.
He disowns the one-year number before anyone can admire it: "why should the time required for a planet to circle the sun synchronize precisely with the time required for business actions to pay off?" His yardstick is a five-year average, with red lights flashing if it falls much below what American industry earns as a whole. If that happens, watch out for the explanation, he warns, via Goethe: "When ideas fail, words come in very handy." Nineteen years of compounding have run at 22.6% a year, and his only forecast is that it cannot last.
Book value is the owners' money as the accounts record it: everything they put in, plus every profit kept, minus losses. It is easy to calculate and makes no judgments. Intrinsic business value, defined in Lesson 1, requires judgment about the future. Buffett reports book value because, for Berkshire, it is a conservative but reasonable stand-in for the harder number.
Exhibit 6 draws why the two part company, with two cases from the letter. The textile mills earned nowhere near a fair return on the $19.46 a share put into them. See's $8 million of kitchens and stock earned $2 million a year. A business is worth the cash it will keep handing over, counted at today's prices, so the mills were worth less than was put in and See's about three times more. Buffett's own illustration is two children put through college at identical cost: identical book value, and futures worth anywhere from zero to many times the cost.
Berkshire has lived both halves. In 1965 its $19.46 of book value per share was all textile mills that could not earn a decent return, an investment he likens to a largely wasted education. By 1983 the sign has flipped: the business is worth considerably more than its books say, partly because of stock gains the books carry at cost, and mostly because of an asset they barely register. The next lesson is about it.
The hardest part, he admits, was unlearning. Taught 35 years earlier to prize tangible assets and shun businesses built on goodwill, he says the bias cost him many "mistakes of omission," and he borrows Keynes for the diagnosis: "The difficulty lies not in the new ideas but in escaping from the old ones."
Two farmers each spend $10,000 planting an orchard. Same receipts, same book value. One chose the right trees for the soil, the other did not, and the receipts will never tell you which. Ten years of harvests will. The receipts are the accountant's number. The harvests are the one Buffett is paying for.
Goodwill, the gift that keeps giving
Attached to the letter is an appendix on the strangest asset in accounting. Buffett says you can live a full and rewarding life without ever thinking about goodwill. He then shows why, in a world of rising prices, it is the asset that inflation feeds instead of starving.
A business that earns far more than a normal return on its physical assets owns an invisible asset: its standing with customers. Accountants record a version of it that shrinks by rule every year. The real thing can grow, and when prices rise, the business that needs the least new money pulls furthest ahead.
Start with See's, bought by Blue Chip in 1972 for $25 million. Its tangible assets came to about $8 million, and it earned about $2 million a year after tax on them, a 25% return few businesses manage. The extra $17 million bought the thing producing that return: a reputation built on "countless pleasant experiences" with the product and the people. That is economic goodwill, drawn in Exhibit 7. Accounting goodwill is the same $17 million, written down by rule at $425,000 a year for forty years, whatever the reputation does. See's earned $13.7 million after tax in 1983 on about $20 million of tangible assets.
Tangible assets are the things a business can touch or collect: buildings, machines, inventory, and the money customers owe it. Goodwill is what a buyer pays above the fair value of those assets. Accountants require it to be amortized: written off against profit in equal slices over up to forty years, with no tax deduction for the charge. Buffett's economic goodwill is the real thing behind the number: the reputation, franchise, or low-cost position that lets a business earn above-normal returns.
Then comes the experiment, drawn in Exhibit 8. Take See's and a "mundane" business that also earns $2 million but needs $18 million of plant and inventory to do it. Let prices double. To stand still, each must double its earnings and, in all likelihood, its tangible assets. The mundane business puts in $18 million and ends up worth only its assets, having gained a dollar for each dollar invested, like money in a savings account. See's puts in $8 million and, valued as before, gains about $25 million: over $3 per $1. "During inflation, Goodwill is the gift that keeps giving."
Two rules follow, and a warning. When judging how good a business is, ignore the amortization charge and look at what it earns on its tangible assets. When judging whether a purchase was wise, ignore the charge too, and count the full price paid, including the true value of any shares handed over. The warning is for goodwill of the other kind, created when "an overexcited management purchases a business at a silly price." The silliness has to go somewhere on the books, and this is where. Buffett's label for it: "No-Will."
Two flower businesses each clear $50,000 a year. The florist on Main Street does it with a cooler and a van. The grower outside town does it with ten greenhouses. When prices double, each must double its takings just to stand still, and each must replace its stock and gear at the new prices: the florist's bill is small, the grower's is enormous. Same profit, same inflation, a far bigger check. Buffett wants the florist.
Measure a franchise by who buys it
The Buffalo News earned real money in 1983 after the losses of its Sunday-paper war, and Buffett uses it to show how the strength of a franchise can be read from outside: count how many households in town choose it every day.
A franchise is a product people choose on purpose. For a newspaper the measure is its penetration ratio, the share of local households that buy it each day. High penetration makes the paper an unusually efficient buy for local advertisers, and one sure way to earn it is to give readers more, not less.
For the six months to September 1983 the News ranked first in weekday penetration among the hundred largest American papers, and third on Sundays, "ten to twenty percentage points ahead of many well-known papers." It was not always so. Before 1977, Buffalo's only Sunday paper, the Courier-Express, lost readers in nearly every year from 1970 to 1976. The News now sells 376,000 copies of a Sunday paper that, before 1977, did not exist (Exhibit 12).
A newspaper's penetration ratio is the percentage of households in its community that buy it each day. Its news hole is the share of the paper given to news rather than advertising. ROP linage is advertising printed on the paper's own pages, as opposed to the preprinted inserts slipped inside it.
Three things explain the acceptance, in his telling: a stable population, an editorial reputation honed by the legendary Alfred Kirchhofer and carried on by Murray Light, and the simplest, drawn in Exhibit 11. The paper delivers an unusual amount of news. Half its content is editorial matter, against a sample of comparable papers in the high 30s. Some publishers have cut their news holes to lift margins. "We have maintained ours and will continue to do so." The News lives up to its name, which is more than most products can claim.
Not everything is cheerful. The year's profit margin just topped its 10% target with help from a one-time tax break and a drop in newsprint prices that will reverse, and advertising is drifting from the printed page into preprinted inserts, which earn less. Henry Urban, who "never flinched" through the dark days of the Sunday war, retired as publisher at midyear, and Stan Lipsey, with Berkshire since 1969, took over.
Two coffee carts on the same street. One is simply where people end up. The other is where the whole block goes on purpose, every morning. If you wanted to hand out flyers to that block, you would pay far more to stand beside the second cart. The flyers are advertising, the morning line is penetration, and the owner who keeps the coffee generous keeps the line.
In insurance, the bill arrives years late
Buffett's own insurers had, in his words, "absolutely terrible results," while GEICO, which he does not run, "simply shot the lights out." He takes the blame for the first, explains why it took years to surface, and finds in the wreckage one kind of policy that is not a commodity after all.
Insurance has a long lead time. A policy priced carelessly today produces its losses two or more years from now, so this year's results grade old decisions. That is the trap and, for a patient observer, the opportunity. And where a promise must stay good for decades, the seller's financial strength becomes the product.
The industry had its worst underwriting year in a long time, paying out about $1.11 for every premium dollar, exactly the kind of year last year's letter promised. Berkshire's own figure was far worse, $1.21, and Buffett declines the excuse that Mike Goldberg has only just taken charge: "the roots of the 1983 results are operating and personnel decisions made two or more years back when I had direct managerial responsibility for the insurance group." The same lag once worked for him. With GEICO, "we could picture what was likely to happen well before it actually occurred."
The combined ratio, as in earlier chapters, is the cents an insurer pays out in claims and costs per premium dollar: above 100 is an underwriting loss, below 100 a profit. Reinsurance is insurance bought by insurers, to pass on part of a risk. A structured settlement replaces a lump-sum payout to an injured person with a stream of payments, usually monthly for life. Loss reserves are the money an insurer sets aside for claims it already owes but has not yet paid.
GEICO paid out about 96 cents per premium dollar, after setting aside a large voluntary sum for policyholder dividends, and Berkshire's roughly one-third share of its premiums, some $270 million, is now 80% larger than everything Berkshire's own insurers write. Jack Byrne and Bill Snyder keep the underwriting disciplined, Lou Simpson runs the investments, and Buffett's summary is that the three of them "are some team." None of it, he adds, lessens by an iota the need to fix his own operation.
The new business is the interesting part. Berkshire is pushing into reinsurance deals where "the buyer's overriding concern should be the seller's long-term creditworthiness." Structured settlements pay an injured claimant monthly, almost always for life, so the payments "must be unquestionably secure for decades to come." Other insurers also pay Berkshire lump sums to take over blocks of old claims. In both, the customer is buying decades of certainty, and no promise is a commodity when it has to last that long.
A farmer sows in spring and learns in autumn whether the seed was any good. Insurance sows a policy today and learns the truth two or more years later, when the claims come in. By then the sower may have changed, which is why Buffett takes the blame for a harvest Mike Goldberg is reaping. Judge the sowing, not the season.
Why Berkshire won't split its stock
Shareholders keep asking why Berkshire will not split its stock to make a share affordable. Buffett's answer is that a split would change who owns the company, and that a busy stock market quietly picks its owners' pockets.
A company gets the shareholders it advertises for. Policies that reward long-term owners attract long-term owners. Gimmicks that reward price-watchers attract price-watchers, and every change of hands is a cost that comes straight out of what the business earns.
A rational share price needs rational shareholders, and Berkshire cannot screen applicants: "Mrs. Astor could select her 400, but anyone can buy any stock." What it can do is advertise honestly and let people sort themselves, the way an opera and a rock concert draw different crowds though anyone may buy a ticket (Exhibit 15). It is the self-selection the 1979 letter described with a restaurant, now with a box office. The result, he believes, is almost certainly the most owner-minded shareholder group among companies of its size, well over 90% of it held by people who owned Berkshire or Blue Chip five years ago.
A stock split divides each share into several, say 100 for 1, so the price per share drops to a hundredth while every owner keeps exactly the same slice of the company: ten $10 bills for a $100 bill. Turnover is how much of a company's stock changes hands in a year: 100% means that, on average, every share was sold once. Frictional costs are the commissions and dealer spreads every trade pays, money that leaves the owners and never reaches the business.
A split would invite the opposite crowd, buyers who "feel wealthier with nine $10 bills than with one $100 bill," and "People who buy for non-value reasons are likely to sell for non-value reasons." At $1,300 a share, he adds, very few investors are actually priced out.
Then comes the arithmetic that gives the lesson its teeth (Exhibit 16). A company earns 12% on its owners' money. If every share changes hands once a year and each buyer and seller pays 1% in commissions (with the stock trading at book value), the owners as a group hand 2% of the company's net worth to brokers every year, a sixth of everything it earned, "for the privilege of transferring ownership." Hence his verdict on brokers who praise "liquidity": "what is good for the croupier is not good for the customer." Berkshire's own shares turn over about 3% a year, and its owners keep the difference.
Ten friends own a rental house worth $100,000 that clears $12,000 a year. Each year every one of them sells his tenth to someone new, and the paperwork costs each buyer and each seller 1%. That is $2,000 a year, a sixth of the rent, paid to lawyers for a house that has not changed. Hold on, trade rarely, and the rent stays with the owners.
The whole chapter, at a glance
In his own words
"Those who believe otherwise should pursue a career in sales, but avoid one in mathematics."
"The projections will be dazzling (the advocates will be sincere) but, in the end, major additional investment in a terrible industry usually is about as rewarding as struggling in quicksand."
"For years the traditional wisdom (long on tradition, short on wisdom) held that inflation protection was best provided by businesses laden with natural resources, plants and machinery, or other tangible assets ('In Goods We Trust'). It doesn't work that way."
"Manic-depressive personalities produce manic-depressive valuations."
"[T]hose who cannot fill your pocket will confidently fill your ear."
"A hyperactive stock market is the pickpocket of enterprise."
"These expensive activities may decide who eats the pie, but they don't enlarge it."
"In some instances, 'health' is a euphemism, but in Louie's case nothing but health would cause us to consider his retirement."
The 1983 letter, in one breath.
"A good business is not always a good purchase (although it's a good place to look for one)."
Run a company as a conduit for its partners, and measure it per share. Hunt for businesses that give customers exceptional value, because that value comes back to the owners. The books record what was put in, not what can be taken out, and the gap is often goodwill, the asset inflation feeds rather than starves. Measure a franchise by how much of its community chooses it. In slow businesses, grade the decision, not the season. And advertise for the owners you want, then give them no reason to leave.