LETTERS FROM OMAHA A Plain-English Guide to Buffett's Letters
Chapter 07
1983

The year Warren Buffett wrote down the rules of the partnership, bought a furniture store that began with $500, and explained why a great business is worth far more than what was put into it.

Shareholder letter dated March 14, 1984
$68.2MProfit from running the businesses
32%Growth in book value per share
$1.31BWhat its stockholdings were worth
7Plain lessons inside
Growth of a $1 stake · since year-end 1964 (the start of the Buffett era)
≈ $109.2in the stock, by year-end 1983
≈ $50.1in book value, by year-end 1983
Compounded from Berkshire's own per-share record of market and book value. Approximate, and drawn from public data, not the 1983 letter. The two parted company this year: the stock jumped from about $775 to about $1,310 during 1983 (up about 69%) while book value per share grew 32%, so the market's long-standing lead over book value widened sharply. That 32% is also the cover's second figure, under a new label: with the old operating-return yardstick retired in last year's letter, growth in book value per share is the measure Buffett now reports, and the cover follows him.
A letter about partners, a furniture store, and the value the books cannot see

Buffett's seventh famous letter opens by setting down the rules of the partnership for a crowd of new owners, then spends the year on one question in many disguises: what is a business really worth, as against what was paid for it?

Profit from running the businesses roughly doubled to $68.2 million, with help from the merger, which raised Berkshire's share of See's and the News, and from a one-time $19.6 million GEICO payout he flags as large and unusual. The real news is elsewhere: a furniture store bought from a 90-year-old who started it with $500, an appendix on the invisible asset called goodwill, and a long argument against splitting the stock. Seven plain lessons, and a confession about insurance.

  1. 01Partners, not stockholdersThe rules
  2. 02The ideal business, built from $500Mrs. B
  3. 03What was put in, and what can be taken outValue
  4. 04Goodwill, the gift that keeps givingGoodwill
  5. 05Measure a franchise by who buys itThe News
  6. 06In insurance, the bill arrives years lateThe lag
  7. 07Why Berkshire won't split its stockTurnover
01
The Rules

Partners, not stockholders

About a thousand new owners came through the door this year, most of them by way of the Blue Chip merger, so Buffett begins by telling them exactly what they have joined. Not a stock, in his telling, but a partnership that happens to be organized as a corporation.

The idea

Think of a company as a conduit through which its owners hold the businesses, not as the owner itself. Every rule follows from that: measure progress per share rather than by size, buy the earnings that are real rather than the ones that print well, and tell the owners whatever you would want to know in their place.

The principles run to thirteen, and Exhibit 2 holds them all. The spine is one attitude: "Although our form is corporate, our attitude is partnership." Charlie Munger and he are the managing partners, and given the size of their holdings the controlling ones too. Every director is a major owner, most with over half the family's net worth in the stock. "We eat our own cooking," he writes, and few boards could say the same, or would want to.

Three rules do most of the work. Berkshire measures itself by progress per share, never by size. At a similar cost, it would rather buy $2 of earnings it cannot report than $1 it can, because whole businesses frequently sell for double the price of small pieces (last year's two pipes, now written down as policy). And every dollar of profit it keeps must in time become at least a dollar of market value, judged over rolling five-year stretches. So far, he reports, it has.

Plain terms

Intrinsic business value is what a business is truly worth to its owner: the cash it can be expected to hand over across its lifetime, discounted to today. Berkshire's goal is to grow that figure per share: a company that doubles in size by doubling its share count has done nothing for the owner of each share. Profits a company keeps rather than mails out as dividends are its retained earnings.

The rest are promises about temperament. Little debt, and long-term when any. No managerial "wish list" filled at the owners' expense. No selling a good business at any price, and no "gin rummy" habit of discarding the weakest business at each turn. Candor, with a warning attached: "the CEO who misleads others in public may eventually mislead himself in private." The one subject he will not be candid about is which stocks he is buying. Good ideas are rare, and easily stolen.

Exhibit 1Who owns the businesses · about 2,900 people, under one name
WHO OWNS SEE'S, THE NEWS, THE FURNITURE MART, AND THE INSURERS? ABOUT 2,900 PEOPLE DO. ABOUT 2,900 OWNER-PARTNERS EACH FIGURE: ABOUT 50 THE TWO IN GREEN: BUFFETT AND MUNGER. THEY RUN IT FOR THE REST, AND HOLD THE CONTROLLING STAKE THEMSELVES. TOGETHER, UNDER ONE NAME: BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY THEY OWN SEE'S CANDIES THE BUFFALO NEWS NEBRASKA FURNITURE MART THE INSURANCE COMPANIES SHARES OF OTHER COMPANIES: GEICO, THE POST... BERKSHIRE IS THE NAME THE OWNERS HOLD THE BUSINESSES UNDER. IT IS NOT A SEPARATE OWNER STANDING BETWEEN THEM. SOME ARE HELD IN FULL, SOME IN PART. AT LEAST FOUR OF THE FIVE DIRECTORS KEEP OVER HALF THEIR FAMILY NET WORTH HERE.
Not a company that owns things while its stockholders own paper. The 2,900 own the candy maker, the newspaper, the store, and the insurers, Berkshire is the name they hold them under, and two of them run the lot. The thirteen rules are what you would expect from managers who are partners first.
Exhibit 2The thirteen promises · the manager-owner rules, in plain words
  1. 1The form is corporate. The attitude is partnership.
  2. 2Every director is a major owner, most with over half the family's net worth here.
  3. 3The goal: grow intrinsic value per share, not the size of the company.
  4. 4First choice, own whole businesses. Second, own pieces of them through stocks.
  5. 5The consolidated total may reveal little. Each business is reported on its own.
  6. 6Accounting never drives a decision: at a similar cost, $2 of unreportable earnings beats $1 reportable.
  7. 7Little debt, and long-term fixed-rate when any. Opportunities get turned down first.
  8. 8No managerial wish list filled at the shareholders' expense.
  9. 9Each $1 of profit kept must become at least $1 of market value, judged over five years.
  10. 10Shares are issued only for equal business value, whatever the form of the issue.
  11. 11Good businesses are never sold, poor ones only reluctantly. No gin rummy.
  12. 12Candor: the business facts the managers would want if the positions were reversed.
  13. 13Except investment ideas, which stay private, whether bought, sold, or rumored.
Thirteen rules, written for a thousand newcomers and binding on the managers who wrote them. Rules 3, 6, and 9 are the ones that decide where the money goes.
Picture it

A circle of friends buys an apartment building together and asks two of them to manage it. The managers own the most units, so every repair bill lands on them too. They report the leaks along with the rent. They never let a new partner in at a discount, and they count success by what each friend's share earns, not by how many buildings the group can boast of. That is Berkshire's charter, in thirteen lines.

·
The Stockholdings

The second choice, listed

Here is the second choice in the flesh: pieces of businesses, bought through the insurers. The basket cost $566 million and was worth $1.31 billion at year-end, $2.31 for every dollar paid, with GEICO still the largest holding.

Crum & Forster, last year's parking place for cash, is gone from the list. Several positions were trimmed, while General Foods and R. J. Reynolds are far larger than a year ago. The forecast that matters is for the earnings nobody prints: Buffett expects these companies to mail Berkshire about $39 million of dividends in 1984 and to keep roughly $65 million more on its behalf. So far, he reports, the kept dollars have in aggregate become far more than a dollar each in market value.

Exhibit 3The portfolio · paid vs. worth at year-end 1983
CompanyWhat it isBoughtPaidWorth '83Compounded/yr
Media GeneralNewspapers~1979$3.2M$11.2M≈37%
The Washington PostNewspapers1973$10.6M$136.9M≈29%
InterpublicAdvertising~1973$4.1M$33.1M≈23%
Affiliated PublicationsNewspapers~1973$3.5M$26.6M≈22%
Ogilvy & MatherAdvertising~1973$2.6M$12.8M≈17%
Handy & HarmanPrecious metals~1979$27.3M$42.2M≈12%
GEICOCar insurance1976 & 1980$47.1M$398.2Mmixed
General FoodsPackaged food~1979 on$163.8M$228.7Mmixed
R. J. ReynoldsTobacco~1980 on$268.9M$341.3Mmixed
TimeMagazines · publishing~1982$27.7M$56.9Mn/a
All other holdings$7.5M$18.0M
Total common stocks$566.3M$1,305.9M
Compounded/yr is roughly how fast each holding has grown per year since it was bought, best first. Read it as a sketch: a short hold or a guessed purchase year (~) can make a rate look spectacular (Media General's ≈37% is that kind of number), and holdings bought in stages are marked mixed because no single rate fits. New to the list does not mean bought this year.
02
Mrs. B

The ideal business, built from $500

The high point of 1983 was a furniture store. Berkshire bought 90% of Nebraska Furniture Mart from Rose Blumkin, who founded it with $500 and who, at 90, still sells carpet on the floor seven days a week.

The idea

The ideal business gives its customers exceptional value, and that value comes back to its owners as exceptional economics. The test for any business is to ask how you would like to compete with it, given plenty of money and good people.

Last year's letter quoted Pascal on the virtue of staying quietly in one room. This year Buffett leaves it: "Even Pascal would have left the room for Mrs. Blumkin." Her story is in Exhibit 5: out of Russia at 23 with no schooling and no English, a store opened in 1937 on $500, creditors paid "precisely as promised" by selling the furniture from her own home, and every Fair Trade case against her price-cutting won, one of them ending with the judge buying $1,400 of carpet.

The chain she built is in Exhibit 4. The Blumkins buy brilliantly, run the store at expense ratios "competitors don't even dream about," and pass much of the saving to customers, who reward one 200,000-square-foot store with over $100 million of sales a year, more than every Omaha competitor combined. Asked how he would compete with that, Buffett answers: "I'd rather wrestle grizzlies than compete with Mrs. B and her progeny."

Plain terms

A store's expense ratio is what it costs to run the place for every dollar it sells: rent, staff, delivery, advertising. A store that spends less per dollar of sales can charge less and still earn more. An option is the right, but not the obligation, to buy a stake later at a set price.

Berkshire bought 90%, left 10% with the family members who run the store, and gave key young family managers an option on a further 10%. The store is not the only asset. "Geneticists should do handsprings over the Blumkin family," Buffett writes of Louie Blumkin and his three sons, and he ranks character ahead of buying skill. Berkshire would like more businesses of this kind, so the letter runs last year's want-ad again: repetition, as the newspapers tell their advertisers, is a key to results.

Exhibit 4The value chain · how low prices become high profits
WHY ONE STORE OUTSELLS ALL ITS OMAHA RIVALS COMBINED · THE CHAIN 1 · BUY BRILLIANTLY Louie Blumkin, the shrewdest buyer of furniture, Buffett says. 2 · RUN LEAN Expense ratios rivals don't even dream about. 3 · PASS THE SAVINGS ON Much of the saving goes to customers as lower prices. 4 · CUSTOMERS FLOOD IN Over $100M a year from one store: more than all Omaha rivals. LESS FEW COSTS LOWER EXCEPTIONAL VALUE TO THE CUSTOMER BECOMES EXCEPTIONAL ECONOMICS FOR THE OWNERS.
Low costs become low prices, low prices become volume, and volume comes back as profit for the owners. The customer's bargain and the owner's return are the same machine seen from two ends.
Exhibit 5Mrs. B · the story behind the store, on one line
ROSE BLUMKIN · FROM A BORDER CROSSING TO THE COUNTRY'S BIGGEST-SELLING HOME FURNISHINGS STORE AGE 23 · ABOUT 67 YEARS AGO TALKS HER WAY OUT OF RUSSIA. NO SCHOOLING, NO ENGLISH. 1937 $500 SAVED FROM YEARS OF SELLING USED CLOTHING. SHE OPENS NEBRASKA FURNITURE MART. THE EARLY CRISIS MONEY RUNS OUT. SHE SELLS THE FURNITURE FROM HER OWN HOME. IN COURT HAULED IN UNDER FAIR TRADE LAWS FOR CUTTING PRICES. WINS EVERY CASE, SELLS THE JUDGE $1,400 OF CARPET. 1983 BERKSHIRE BUYS 90% OF THE MART. AT 90, ON THE SALES FLOOR DAILY. 46 YEARS: $500 TO OVER $100 MILLION OF SALES A YEAR NO LOCATION OR PRODUCT ADVANTAGE, AND RICH, LONG-ENTRENCHED COMPETITION. SHE WON ANYWAY.
Every advantage was with the incumbents. The store now outsells all of them combined. The moat was never the building. It was the woman, and then the family.
$500
Her starting capital, saved by 1937
$100M+
Yearly sales from one 200,000-square-foot store
90%
Bought by Berkshire, with 10% left in the family
7 days
A week on the sales floor, at age 90
Picture it

A corner grocer buys so shrewdly, and runs so lean, that her prices undercut the supermarket chain down the road. The chain has more money, more trucks, and more lawyers, and still cannot match her. Shoppers get the better deal, she gets the town, and the chain's executives quietly decide to compete somewhere else. Buffett's test is simply to ask which side of that contest you would rather be on.

03
Value

What was put in, and what can be taken out

Book value per share rose 32% in 1983, and Buffett spends more words on what book value is not than on the gain. It is a record of money put in. What matters is what can be taken out.

The idea

Book value is an accounting total of what the owners contributed and what the business kept. Intrinsic value is an estimate of the cash a business will hand over in the future. The two can differ wildly, in either direction, and only the second one really counts.

He disowns the one-year number before anyone can admire it: "why should the time required for a planet to circle the sun synchronize precisely with the time required for business actions to pay off?" His yardstick is a five-year average, with red lights flashing if it falls much below what American industry earns as a whole. If that happens, watch out for the explanation, he warns, via Goethe: "When ideas fail, words come in very handy." Nineteen years of compounding have run at 22.6% a year, and his only forecast is that it cannot last.

Plain terms

Book value is the owners' money as the accounts record it: everything they put in, plus every profit kept, minus losses. It is easy to calculate and makes no judgments. Intrinsic business value, defined in Lesson 1, requires judgment about the future. Buffett reports book value because, for Berkshire, it is a conservative but reasonable stand-in for the harder number.

Exhibit 6 draws why the two part company, with two cases from the letter. The textile mills earned nowhere near a fair return on the $19.46 a share put into them. See's $8 million of kitchens and stock earned $2 million a year. A business is worth the cash it will keep handing over, counted at today's prices, so the mills were worth less than was put in and See's about three times more. Buffett's own illustration is two children put through college at identical cost: identical book value, and futures worth anywhere from zero to many times the cost.

Berkshire has lived both halves. In 1965 its $19.46 of book value per share was all textile mills that could not earn a decent return, an investment he likens to a largely wasted education. By 1983 the sign has flipped: the business is worth considerably more than its books say, partly because of stock gains the books carry at cost, and mostly because of an asset they barely register. The next lesson is about it.

The hardest part, he admits, was unlearning. Taught 35 years earlier to prize tangible assets and shun businesses built on goodwill, he says the bias cost him many "mistakes of omission," and he borrows Keynes for the diagnosis: "The difficulty lies not in the new ideas but in escaping from the old ones."

Exhibit 6What was put in, and what comes out · two real cases
THE SAME QUESTION FOR ANY BUSINESS: WHAT WENT IN, AND WHAT COMES OUT, YEAR AFTER YEAR? WHAT WENT IN · BOOK VALUE WHAT COMES OUT, EVERY YEAR BERKSHIRE'S TEXTILE MILLS 1965, ALL OF THE $19.46 A SHARE $19.46 A SHARE OF MILLS AND MACHINERY A TRICKLE: NOWHERE NEAR A FAIR RETURN ON THE MONEY SO WORTH LESS THAN WAS PUT IN SEE'S CANDIES 1972, WHEN BLUE CHIP BOUGHT IT $8M OF KITCHENS, STOCK, MONEY OWED $2M $2M $2M $2M $2M $2M $2M A YEAR AFTER TAX, YEAR AFTER YEAR: 25% ON WHAT WENT IN SO WORTH $25M, THE PRICE PAID: 3X WHAT WAS PUT IN BOOK VALUE COUNTS WHAT WENT IN. INTRINSIC VALUE COUNTS THE COINS STILL TO COME, AT TODAY'S PRICES.
Same yardstick, opposite verdicts. The mills could not earn a fair return on what they cost. The candy kitchens cost $8 million and hand over $2 million every year, so a buyer paid three times the kitchens. What a business is worth is the money still coming out of it, not the money that went in.
$975.83
Book value per share, up from $737.43 during 1983
22.6%
Compounded yearly over nineteen years, from $19.46
$70M
Pre-tax gains on stocks carried at cost, absent from book value
5 years
The shortest test he thinks worth taking seriously
Picture it

Two farmers each spend $10,000 planting an orchard. Same receipts, same book value. One chose the right trees for the soil, the other did not, and the receipts will never tell you which. Ten years of harvests will. The receipts are the accountant's number. The harvests are the one Buffett is paying for.

04
Goodwill

Goodwill, the gift that keeps giving

Attached to the letter is an appendix on the strangest asset in accounting. Buffett says you can live a full and rewarding life without ever thinking about goodwill. He then shows why, in a world of rising prices, it is the asset that inflation feeds instead of starving.

The idea

A business that earns far more than a normal return on its physical assets owns an invisible asset: its standing with customers. Accountants record a version of it that shrinks by rule every year. The real thing can grow, and when prices rise, the business that needs the least new money pulls furthest ahead.

Start with See's, bought by Blue Chip in 1972 for $25 million. Its tangible assets came to about $8 million, and it earned about $2 million a year after tax on them, a 25% return few businesses manage. The extra $17 million bought the thing producing that return: a reputation built on "countless pleasant experiences" with the product and the people. That is economic goodwill, drawn in Exhibit 7. Accounting goodwill is the same $17 million, written down by rule at $425,000 a year for forty years, whatever the reputation does. See's earned $13.7 million after tax in 1983 on about $20 million of tangible assets.

Plain terms

Tangible assets are the things a business can touch or collect: buildings, machines, inventory, and the money customers owe it. Goodwill is what a buyer pays above the fair value of those assets. Accountants require it to be amortized: written off against profit in equal slices over up to forty years, with no tax deduction for the charge. Buffett's economic goodwill is the real thing behind the number: the reputation, franchise, or low-cost position that lets a business earn above-normal returns.

Then comes the experiment, drawn in Exhibit 8. Take See's and a "mundane" business that also earns $2 million but needs $18 million of plant and inventory to do it. Let prices double. To stand still, each must double its earnings and, in all likelihood, its tangible assets. The mundane business puts in $18 million and ends up worth only its assets, having gained a dollar for each dollar invested, like money in a savings account. See's puts in $8 million and, valued as before, gains about $25 million: over $3 per $1. "During inflation, Goodwill is the gift that keeps giving."

Two rules follow, and a warning. When judging how good a business is, ignore the amortization charge and look at what it earns on its tangible assets. When judging whether a purchase was wise, ignore the charge too, and count the full price paid, including the true value of any shares handed over. The warning is for goodwill of the other kind, created when "an overexcited management purchases a business at a silly price." The silliness has to go somewhere on the books, and this is where. Buffett's label for it: "No-Will."

Exhibit 7Where goodwill comes from · what $25 million bought
WHAT BLUE CHIP'S $25 MILLION BOUGHT IN 1972 · KITCHENS, AND CUSTOMERS WHO COME BACK THE CUSTOMERS $17M THE KITCHENS $8M PRICE PAID: $25M $8M · THINGS YOU CAN TOUCH OR COLLECT Kitchens, buildings, candy in stock, money owed by stores. Worth about what they cost. They earned $2M a year, a 25% return. $17M · THE CUSTOMERS WHO COME BACK A reputation built on countless pleasant experiences with the candy and the people selling it. It is on no shelf, and it is why the kitchens earn 25% instead of an ordinary return. THEY KEEP COMING, AND THEY PAY A PREMIUM. THAT IS ECONOMIC GOODWILL. ACCOUNTING GOODWILL IS THE SAME $17M, WRITTEN OFF BY RULE AT $425,000 A YEAR FOR 40 YEARS, WHATEVER CUSTOMERS DO.
Two-thirds of the price bought nothing you could photograph. Economic goodwill is the value of customers who come back and pay a premium, and it is what lets ordinary kitchens earn an extraordinary return.
Exhibit 8The inflation experiment · prices double, and one business pulls away
THE EXPERIMENT · TWO BUSINESSES EARNING $2M A YEAR, THEN PRICES DOUBLE SEE'S A MUNDANE BUSINESS BEFORE · EARNS $2M ON $8M OF KITCHENS AND STOCK 25% on what went in. Worth $25M, the price Blue Chip paid in 1972. BEFORE · EARNS $2M ON $18M OF PLANT AND STOCK 11% on what went in. Worth about $18M, the value of its assets. PRICES DOUBLE. TO STAND STILL, EACH MUST NOW EARN $4M A YEAR. TO DO THAT, EACH WOULD PROBABLY HAVE TO DOUBLE THE MONEY TIED UP IN STOCK, PLANT, AND BILLS OWED TO IT. NEW MONEY TO PUT IN: $8M $2M $2M $2M $2M Earns $4M. Valued as before: about $50M. GAINED $25M FOR $8M PUT IN · OVER $3 PER $1 NEW MONEY TO PUT IN: $18M $2M $2M $2M $2M $2M $2M $2M $2M $2M Earns $4M. Still worth its assets: $36M. GAINED $18M FOR $18M · $1 PER $1, A SAVINGS ACCOUNT BOTH ARE HURT BY INFLATION. THE ONE THAT NEEDS THE LEAST NEW MONEY IS HURT THE LEAST, AND PULLS FAR AHEAD.
Same earnings, same inflation, same need to double. The candy maker had to find four coins, the mundane business nine. The business built on reputation wrote the smaller check and collected the larger gain.
Exhibit 9Two goodwills, two directions · See's, 1972 to 1983
THE BOOKS SHRINK ONE GOODWILL BY RULE · THE BUSINESS GROWS THE OTHER SEE'S PURCHASED GOODWILL, ON THE BOOKS ($M) $17M · 1972 ABOUT $12.5M · 1983 MINUS $425,000 A YEAR, EVERY YEAR, FOR 40 YEARS, WHATEVER THE BUSINESS DOES. SEE'S PROFIT AFTER TAX ($M) 2.1 '72 1.9 '73 3.0 '74 5.1 '75 5.6 '76 6.2 '77 6.2 '78 6.3 '79 7.5 '80 10.8 '81 11.9 '82 13.7 '83 $2.1M IN 1972 TO $13.7M IN 1983, LATELY ON ABOUT $20M OF TANGIBLE ASSETS. THE REAL GOODWILL GREW. LEFT: THE $17M PREMIUM PAID IN 1972, AMORTIZED BY RULE. RIGHT: SEE'S AFTER-TAX PROFIT, FROM THE LETTER'S TABLE. RECORDED GOODWILL FELL WHILE PROFIT ROSE MORE THAN SIXFOLD: THE YEARLY CHARGES WERE NEVER TRUE ECONOMIC COSTS.
The accountants' goodwill marches down in equal steps. The customers' goodwill, measured by what it earns, climbed the other way: the pricing-power machine of the 1977 letter, still running. A charge that shrinks a growing asset is a rule, not a cost.
Picture it

Two flower businesses each clear $50,000 a year. The florist on Main Street does it with a cooler and a van. The grower outside town does it with ten greenhouses. When prices double, each must double its takings just to stand still, and each must replace its stock and gear at the new prices: the florist's bill is small, the grower's is enormous. Same profit, same inflation, a far bigger check. Buffett wants the florist.

05
The News

Measure a franchise by who buys it

The Buffalo News earned real money in 1983 after the losses of its Sunday-paper war, and Buffett uses it to show how the strength of a franchise can be read from outside: count how many households in town choose it every day.

The idea

A franchise is a product people choose on purpose. For a newspaper the measure is its penetration ratio, the share of local households that buy it each day. High penetration makes the paper an unusually efficient buy for local advertisers, and one sure way to earn it is to give readers more, not less.

For the six months to September 1983 the News ranked first in weekday penetration among the hundred largest American papers, and third on Sundays, "ten to twenty percentage points ahead of many well-known papers." It was not always so. Before 1977, Buffalo's only Sunday paper, the Courier-Express, lost readers in nearly every year from 1970 to 1976. The News now sells 376,000 copies of a Sunday paper that, before 1977, did not exist (Exhibit 12).

Plain terms

A newspaper's penetration ratio is the percentage of households in its community that buy it each day. Its news hole is the share of the paper given to news rather than advertising. ROP linage is advertising printed on the paper's own pages, as opposed to the preprinted inserts slipped inside it.

Three things explain the acceptance, in his telling: a stable population, an editorial reputation honed by the legendary Alfred Kirchhofer and carried on by Murray Light, and the simplest, drawn in Exhibit 11. The paper delivers an unusual amount of news. Half its content is editorial matter, against a sample of comparable papers in the high 30s. Some publishers have cut their news holes to lift margins. "We have maintained ours and will continue to do so." The News lives up to its name, which is more than most products can claim.

Not everything is cheerful. The year's profit margin just topped its 10% target with help from a one-time tax break and a drop in newsprint prices that will reverse, and advertising is drifting from the printed page into preprinted inserts, which earn less. Henry Urban, who "never flinched" through the dark days of the Sunday war, retired as publisher at midyear, and Stan Lipsey, with Berkshire since 1969, took over.

Exhibit 10Penetration · how many doorsteps the paper lands on
PENETRATION · OF THE HOMES IN TOWN, HOW MANY GET THE PAPER EACH MORNING? A HIGH-PENETRATION PAPER MOST DOORSTEPS IN TOWN A LOW-PENETRATION PAPER FEWER OF THE DOORSTEPS IN TOWN A LOCAL STORE BUYING AN AD WANTS THE PAPER THAT LANDS ON THE MOST DOORSTEPS NEAR THE STORE. THE FIRST PAPER IS AN EXCEPTIONALLY EFFICIENT BUY. THE SECOND HAS A FAR LESS COMPELLING MESSAGE. THE NEWS: NO. 1 IN WEEKDAY PENETRATION AMONG THE 100 LARGEST U.S. PAPERS. NO. 3 ON SUNDAY. SIX MONTHS TO SEPT. 30, 1983, AUDIT BUREAU CITY-ZONE DATA. THE HOUSES ARE AN ILLUSTRATION, NOT THE ACTUAL RATIOS.
Count doorsteps, not copies. The paper on most of the town's doorsteps is the one a local retailer pays for, which is why penetration, not raw circulation, measures the franchise.
Exhibit 11The news hole · what is inside the paper
HOW MUCH OF THE PAPER IS NEWS RATHER THAN ADS · PREPRINTED INSERTS EXCLUDED NEWS 50% ADS THE BUFFALO NEWS NEWS HIGH 30s ADS A TYPICAL PAPER, PER A SAMPLE PAGE FOR PAGE, OVER 25% MORE NEWS SOME PUBLISHERS CUT THEIR NEWS HOLES TO LIFT MARGINS. THE NEWS KEPT ITS HALF, BY INTENT.
A bigger news hole costs margin that other publishers have chosen to keep. The franchise is fed by what the reader gets, not by what the publisher keeps.
Exhibit 12Sunday in Buffalo · the shrinking rival, then the News
AVERAGE SUNDAY CIRCULATION IN BUFFALO · THE OLD SUNDAY PAPER, THEN THE NEWS THE COURIER-EXPRESS · BUFFALO'S ONLY SUNDAY PAPER THEN THE NEWS · NOW 314K 1970 306K 1971 302K 1972 290K 1973 278K 1974 269K 1975 270K 1976 376K 1984 (CURRENT) THOUSANDS, PER THE LETTER'S TABLE. THE NEWS HAD NO SUNDAY PAPER BEFORE 1977, SO THE EARLY BARS ARE THE RIVAL'S.
The Sunday market was shrinking under its sole paper. The News now reaches more Sunday readers than that paper did in any year on the table, even when it had the market to itself.
Picture it

Two coffee carts on the same street. One is simply where people end up. The other is where the whole block goes on purpose, every morning. If you wanted to hand out flyers to that block, you would pay far more to stand beside the second cart. The flyers are advertising, the morning line is penetration, and the owner who keeps the coffee generous keeps the line.

06
The Lag

In insurance, the bill arrives years late

Buffett's own insurers had, in his words, "absolutely terrible results," while GEICO, which he does not run, "simply shot the lights out." He takes the blame for the first, explains why it took years to surface, and finds in the wreckage one kind of policy that is not a commodity after all.

The idea

Insurance has a long lead time. A policy priced carelessly today produces its losses two or more years from now, so this year's results grade old decisions. That is the trap and, for a patient observer, the opportunity. And where a promise must stay good for decades, the seller's financial strength becomes the product.

The industry had its worst underwriting year in a long time, paying out about $1.11 for every premium dollar, exactly the kind of year last year's letter promised. Berkshire's own figure was far worse, $1.21, and Buffett declines the excuse that Mike Goldberg has only just taken charge: "the roots of the 1983 results are operating and personnel decisions made two or more years back when I had direct managerial responsibility for the insurance group." The same lag once worked for him. With GEICO, "we could picture what was likely to happen well before it actually occurred."

Plain terms

The combined ratio, as in earlier chapters, is the cents an insurer pays out in claims and costs per premium dollar: above 100 is an underwriting loss, below 100 a profit. Reinsurance is insurance bought by insurers, to pass on part of a risk. A structured settlement replaces a lump-sum payout to an injured person with a stream of payments, usually monthly for life. Loss reserves are the money an insurer sets aside for claims it already owes but has not yet paid.

GEICO paid out about 96 cents per premium dollar, after setting aside a large voluntary sum for policyholder dividends, and Berkshire's roughly one-third share of its premiums, some $270 million, is now 80% larger than everything Berkshire's own insurers write. Jack Byrne and Bill Snyder keep the underwriting disciplined, Lou Simpson runs the investments, and Buffett's summary is that the three of them "are some team." None of it, he adds, lessens by an iota the need to fix his own operation.

The new business is the interesting part. Berkshire is pushing into reinsurance deals where "the buyer's overriding concern should be the seller's long-term creditworthiness." Structured settlements pay an injured claimant monthly, almost always for life, so the payments "must be unquestionably secure for decades to come." Other insurers also pay Berkshire lump sums to take over blocks of old claims. In both, the customer is buying decades of certainty, and no promise is a commodity when it has to last that long.

Exhibit 13The lag · the premium arrives years before the bill
WHY 1983'S INSURANCE LOSSES WERE DECIDED IN 1981 · THE MONEY COMES IN YEARS BEFORE THE BILL THE POLICY IS PRICED AND SOLD. BUFFETT IS RUNNING THE INSURERS. $1.00 OF PREMIUM IN THE CLAIMS ARRIVE AND ARE PAID. MIKE GOLDBERG NOW RUNS MOST OF IT. $1.21 OF CLAIMS AND COSTS OUT 1981 1982 1983 THE LAG: TWO OR MORE YEARS BEFORE THE BOOKS SHOW WHETHER THE PRICE WAS RIGHT WHAT 1983 PRINTED, PER PREMIUM DOLLAR: BERKSHIRE $1.21 INDUSTRY $1.11 GEICO $0.96 THE SAME LAG, RUN FORWARD: GEICO'S RECOVERY WAS VISIBLE TO BUFFETT WELL BEFORE THE NUMBERS SHOWED IT. His outlook for the industry, borrowed from Yogi Berra: "It will be deja vu all over again."
The dollar comes in when the policy is sold. The $1.21 goes out two or more years later, often on someone else's watch. Grade the decision, not the season, and remember the same lag lets a careful reader see a recovery coming early.
Exhibit 14A promise that must last decades · where strength is the handle
STRUCTURED SETTLEMENTS · AN INSURANCE PROMISE THAT IS NOT SUGAR AN INJURED CLAIMANT Takes monthly checks for life instead of one lump sum. MONTH AFTER MONTH, FOR LIFE DECADES USUALLY SERIOUSLY INJURED, OFTEN WITH SOME INFLATION PROTECTION BUILT IN THE REAL QUESTION: WILL THE INSURER STILL BE ABLE TO PAY, DECADES FROM NOW? BERKSHIRE'S ANSWER: PREMIER FINANCIAL STRENGTH. NO OTHER INSURER IT KNOWS OF, WHATEVER ITS SIZE, HAS AS MUCH. ALSO ON OFFER: TAKING OVER BLOCKS OF OTHER INSURERS' OLD CLAIMS FOR A LUMP SUM. NO PROFIT FRONT-ENDED. WHEN THE PROMISE MUST LAST DECADES, STRENGTH IS THE HANDLE.
Last year's lesson was that insurance sells like sugar: the same promise from every seller. A promise that must hold for decades is different, because the seller's survival is part of the product, and there Berkshire's balance sheet is a brand.
121
Berkshire's own combined ratio in 1983
111
The industry's, estimated: its worst in a long time
96
GEICO's, after a large voluntary dividend set-aside
$270M
Berkshire's share of GEICO's premiums, 80% more than its own volume
Picture it

A farmer sows in spring and learns in autumn whether the seed was any good. Insurance sows a policy today and learns the truth two or more years later, when the claims come in. By then the sower may have changed, which is why Buffett takes the blame for a harvest Mike Goldberg is reaping. Judge the sowing, not the season.

07
Turnover

Why Berkshire won't split its stock

Shareholders keep asking why Berkshire will not split its stock to make a share affordable. Buffett's answer is that a split would change who owns the company, and that a busy stock market quietly picks its owners' pockets.

The idea

A company gets the shareholders it advertises for. Policies that reward long-term owners attract long-term owners. Gimmicks that reward price-watchers attract price-watchers, and every change of hands is a cost that comes straight out of what the business earns.

A rational share price needs rational shareholders, and Berkshire cannot screen applicants: "Mrs. Astor could select her 400, but anyone can buy any stock." What it can do is advertise honestly and let people sort themselves, the way an opera and a rock concert draw different crowds though anyone may buy a ticket (Exhibit 15). It is the self-selection the 1979 letter described with a restaurant, now with a box office. The result, he believes, is almost certainly the most owner-minded shareholder group among companies of its size, well over 90% of it held by people who owned Berkshire or Blue Chip five years ago.

Plain terms

A stock split divides each share into several, say 100 for 1, so the price per share drops to a hundredth while every owner keeps exactly the same slice of the company: ten $10 bills for a $100 bill. Turnover is how much of a company's stock changes hands in a year: 100% means that, on average, every share was sold once. Frictional costs are the commissions and dealer spreads every trade pays, money that leaves the owners and never reaches the business.

A split would invite the opposite crowd, buyers who "feel wealthier with nine $10 bills than with one $100 bill," and "People who buy for non-value reasons are likely to sell for non-value reasons." At $1,300 a share, he adds, very few investors are actually priced out.

Then comes the arithmetic that gives the lesson its teeth (Exhibit 16). A company earns 12% on its owners' money. If every share changes hands once a year and each buyer and seller pays 1% in commissions (with the stock trading at book value), the owners as a group hand 2% of the company's net worth to brokers every year, a sixth of everything it earned, "for the privilege of transferring ownership." Hence his verdict on brokers who praise "liquidity": "what is good for the croupier is not good for the customer." Berkshire's own shares turn over about 3% a year, and its owners keep the difference.

Exhibit 15Self-selection · the poster decides who shows up
SELF-SELECTION · ANYONE CAN BUY A TICKET, BUT THE POSTER DECIDES WHO SHOWS UP TONIGHT: OPERA DRAWS ONE CROWD TONIGHT: ROCK CONCERT DRAWS A VERY DIFFERENT ONE SAME TICKET WINDOW, SELF-SORTED CROWDS BERKSHIRE'S POSTER IS ITS POLICIES AND ITS LETTERS They draw people who think like owners and watch business results, not prices, and dissuade the rest. A split would be a different poster, for a different crowd. WELL OVER 90% OF SHARES ARE HELD BY PEOPLE WHO OWNED BERKSHIRE OR BLUE CHIP FIVE YEARS AGO. OVER 95% ARE HELD BY INVESTORS FOR WHOM BERKSHIRE IS AT LEAST DOUBLE THEIR NEXT LARGEST HOLDING.
No bouncer, no dress code, no screening. The advertisement does the selecting, and Berkshire's advertisement is everything it says and does.
Exhibit 16The musical-chairs tax · who keeps the 12
THE OWNERS EARN 12 ON EVERY 100. EVERY SHARE CHANGES HANDS ONCE A YEAR. WHO KEEPS THE 12? FOR EVERY $100 OF NET WORTH, WITH THE STOCK TRADING AT BOOK VALUE · 12 EARNED · 1% COMMISSION TO BUY, 1% TO SELL 10 · KEPT BY THE OWNERS 2 · TO BROKERS = 12 EARNED ONE-SIXTH OF THE PROFIT, GONE TO CHANGING CHAIRS, AND THE BUSINESS NOT A DOLLAR BETTER FOR IT. THE SAME COST, AS A SHARE OF THE COMPANY'S VALUE EACH YEAR 2.0% · THE HYPERACTIVE STOCK 0.06% · BERKSHIRE, ABOUT $900,000 A YEAR A YEAR OF 100-MILLION-SHARE DAYS AT 15¢ A SHARE EACH WAY: A CHAIR-CHANGING BILL OF ABOUT $7.5 BILLION, ROUGHLY THE COMBINED 1982 PROFITS OF EXXON, GENERAL MOTORS, MOBIL, AND TEXACO.
Nothing was built, sold, or invented. Ownership just changed hands, and a sixth of the profit left with it. Trading is a tax the owners levy on themselves, and Berkshire's owners pay far less than average.
Picture it

Ten friends own a rental house worth $100,000 that clears $12,000 a year. Each year every one of them sells his tenth to someone new, and the paperwork costs each buyer and each seller 1%. That is $2,000 a year, a sixth of the rent, paid to lawyers for a house that has not changed. Hold on, trade rarely, and the rent stays with the owners.

Carry these seven with you

The whole chapter, at a glance

No.The ideaThe 1983 proofRemember it as
01
The company is a conduit, and its shareholders are partners.
Thirteen written rules · at least four of five directors keep over half their family net worth in it
Friends who co-own a building
02
Exceptional value for customers comes back as exceptional economics for owners.
$500 in 1937 to $100M+ a year from one store · more than all Omaha rivals combined
The grocer the chain can't beat
03
Book value is what was put in. Intrinsic value is what can be taken out.
$19.46 overstated the truth in 1965 · $975.83 understates it now
Two orchards, same receipts
04
Goodwill is the real asset, and inflation makes it worth more, not less.
See's gains over $3 per $1 of new money · the mundane business gains $1
The florist and the greenhouses
05
Measure a franchise by how much of its community chooses it.
No. 1 in weekday penetration among the 100 largest papers · a 50% news hole
The cart with the morning line
06
Insurance results grade decisions made years earlier.
Berkshire 121 · industry 111 · GEICO 96
The farmer's harvest
07
You get the shareholders you advertise for, and trading is a tax.
100% turnover at 1% each way eats a sixth of a 12% return · Berkshire turns over about 3%
The rental house and the lawyers
From the 1983 letter

In his own words

On whether 22.6% a year can go on

"Those who believe otherwise should pursue a career in sales, but avoid one in mathematics."

On rescuing a poor business

"The projections will be dazzling (the advocates will be sincere) but, in the end, major additional investment in a terrible industry usually is about as rewarding as struggling in quicksand."

On "In Goods We Trust"

"For years the traditional wisdom (long on tradition, short on wisdom) held that inflation protection was best provided by businesses laden with natural resources, plants and machinery, or other tangible assets ('In Goods We Trust'). It doesn't work that way."

On the market's moods

"Manic-depressive personalities produce manic-depressive valuations."

On brokers

"[T]hose who cannot fill your pocket will confidently fill your ear."

On trading

"A hyperactive stock market is the pickpocket of enterprise."

On Wall Street's fees

"These expensive activities may decide who eats the pie, but they don't enlarge it."

On Louie Vincenti, retiring at 77

"In some instances, 'health' is a euphemism, but in Louie's case nothing but health would cause us to consider his retirement."

The takeaway

The 1983 letter, in one breath.

"A good business is not always a good purchase (although it's a good place to look for one)."

Run a company as a conduit for its partners, and measure it per share. Hunt for businesses that give customers exceptional value, because that value comes back to the owners. The books record what was put in, not what can be taken out, and the gap is often goodwill, the asset inflation feeds rather than starves. Measure a franchise by how much of its community chooses it. In slow businesses, grade the decision, not the season. And advertise for the owners you want, then give them no reason to leave.

LETTERS FROM OMAHA · A plain-English guide to Warren Buffett's letters · Chapter 07. This chapter retells Berkshire Hathaway's shareholder letter for 1983, written by Warren E. Buffett and dated March 14, 1984, together with its appendix on goodwill. Sources, methods, copyright, and disclaimers appear on the copyright page.